200th Post!

While I'm not always the most failthful blogger, I've still managed 200 posts since my first entry back in 2004. I've avaeraged about an entry per week, though my concistently has been a little better when you look at the long breaks I took between classes.

My new favorite political site is http://www.pollster.com/.

It's a bit early to be focusing on the election--usually that happens after labor day. You'll see the campaigns gearing up after the olympics with the conventions.

Everything is breaking Obama's way right now. The Iraqui government's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal strategy pretty much dilutes McCain's strongest argument.

The pollster.com map shows Obama leading strongly in states with 260 electoral votes--that means he only needs 10 votes from states where he leads modestly, or states where the polls projext a tossup. If Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, or Virginia breaks his way, it looks like this election is over. Considering the state of the economy in Ohio, I can't imagine McCain winning a state where Bush barely beat Kerry.

Given the map, it looks to me like the smart pick for VP is Indiana's Evan Bayh. He would help Obama in Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan.

This election is looking more and more like 1980, where Reagan trailed or modestly led Carter, until the one-on-one debates made the American people realize they could trust the guy. That was all that was needed to trigger the Reagan landslide.

American's are dissatisfied with the Republicans in the same way they were dissatisfied with the Democrats in 1980. All Obama needs is that trigger. Some people think this trip could be the trigger. I don't think so--despite the positive publicity for Obama so far, the American people aren't focused on the election much. Look for the first debate to be the key to this election.

Back in action!

I'm back, after our mid-semester break.

In my examination of political websites, I've found one, http://www.michiganliberal.com/, of particular interest.

While you might think that Michigan, which supported Kerry and Gore in the last two elections would almost certainly vote Democratic, given the Democratic tide this election, there are at least three reasons that may not be true:

1. McCain history as a maverick appeals to Michigan's idiosyncratic Republicans.

2. McCain might nominate Mitt Romney, who has an appeal to Michigan voters who remember his father, Governor George Romney, and his mother, Lenore, who ran for the US Senate in 1972.

3. The Democrats are not popular in Michigan because of the blame Governor Jennifer Granholm is receiving for the struggling local economy, and for the scandal surrounding Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who refuses to resign, despite evidence showing he used city money to obstruct an investigation which revealed he had an affair with his chief of staff.

While it is clearly a pro-Democratic site, its Michigan emphasis is very educational!

Aristotle! For Everybody!

Speaking of politics, I'm teaching a new freshman course this fall at IPFW, W129. This writing course will be built around a common theme--politics and the election.

One of the goals of the course is to teach students to read and analyze complex texts using the tools of rhetoric.

As I was choosing an ancillary text for this purpose, it occurred to me that Aristotle would be a great choice, since students fine his work difficult, and it is available free online. Then I remebered Mortimer Adler's Aristotle for Everybody, which does a nice job of making his thinking accessible.

Asking my students to use Aristotle's tools to analyze political rhetoric seems like a fun challenge! I hope the students agree.