Tuesday, July 22, 2008

200th Post!

While I'm not always the most failthful blogger, I've still managed 200 posts since my first entry back in 2004. I've avaeraged about an entry per week, though my concistently has been a little better when you look at the long breaks I took between classes.

My new favorite political site is http://www.pollster.com/.

It's a bit early to be focusing on the election--usually that happens after labor day. You'll see the campaigns gearing up after the olympics with the conventions.

Everything is breaking Obama's way right now. The Iraqui government's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal strategy pretty much dilutes McCain's strongest argument.

The pollster.com map shows Obama leading strongly in states with 260 electoral votes--that means he only needs 10 votes from states where he leads modestly, or states where the polls projext a tossup. If Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, or Virginia breaks his way, it looks like this election is over. Considering the state of the economy in Ohio, I can't imagine McCain winning a state where Bush barely beat Kerry.

Given the map, it looks to me like the smart pick for VP is Indiana's Evan Bayh. He would help Obama in Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan.

This election is looking more and more like 1980, where Reagan trailed or modestly led Carter, until the one-on-one debates made the American people realize they could trust the guy. That was all that was needed to trigger the Reagan landslide.

American's are dissatisfied with the Republicans in the same way they were dissatisfied with the Democrats in 1980. All Obama needs is that trigger. Some people think this trip could be the trigger. I don't think so--despite the positive publicity for Obama so far, the American people aren't focused on the election much. Look for the first debate to be the key to this election.


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